Finland's president Stubb warns Europe: don't panic over Russia

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NEW YORK — Finnish President Alexander Stubb has a message to European partners amid growing warnings of further Russian escalation: Keep calm and carry on.

In recent days, top European officials have ever-more-loudly sounded the alarm about intensifying Russian hybrid warfare, with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warning that Moscow could send drones or missiles into the territory of NATO countries supporting Ukraine in “the next few months.” The head of the Czech security service warned that Russia could undertake “a limited incursion, false-flag provocations, a massive influence campaign” in a matter of “months, not years.”

Yet Stubb has a different message. Although he acknowledges that Europe needs to prepare for “continued hybrid and sabotage attacks” by Russia, the Finnish president warns that Europe shouldn’t “overreact,” as Moscow aims to scare allies into slowing down support for Ukraine.

“We have to be very careful and understand that Russia is trying to destabilize and scare Europe. And any time we overreact to a hybrid attack, they have actually won the battle in that particular way,” Stubb told POLITICO during an interview on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly in New York.

“We also have to understand that it is not in the interest of Russia nor in the capacity of Russia to go full-scale” with military escalation, Stubb added. “So they will continue to intimidate and we just have to be, as I say, cool, calm and collected in this situation.”

Stubb lauded Germany’s recent decision to attribute responsibility to Russia for the attempted Leipzig drone attack : “That is exactly what you need to do. You need to point the finger and say, we know what you’re doing and these are the consequences.”

In contrast, however, Stubb pointed to the “overreaction” from some intelligence services which “basically say that, well, you’re next” for a Russian invasion.

“We don’t see the evidence of that,” he said, adding: “We think we have to be vigilant and awake. But, you know, we have the longest border in NATO with Russia, it’s half the border. In our intelligence we see that there is activity but no imminent military threat right now.”

Stubb also expressed tentative hopefulness concerning a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy in New York on Tuesday.

“Obviously, we’re not going to be getting a peace deal here this week,” he said. “But if we were to get, for instance, an idea or a framework for a ceasefire in the Black Sea linked to grain or to energy, I think this would be a move in the right direction.”

Stubb added that he was hoping for further peace talks in the coming weeks, including potentially a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Zelenskyy at the G20 summit in Miami in December.

“Let’s see what President Trump is able to do for the G20 meeting. Is he able to get Zelenskyy and Putin around the same table?” Stubb said, adding that this was “a possibility” and would be “a jackpot,” even though currently negotiations were still “far from that.”

The Finnish president also pushed back against suggestions that he could be Europe’s top negotiator in upcoming peace talks with Russia.

“No, I don’t think that’s sort of in the cards,” Stubb said. “I don’t think Europe will have one representative as such,” he argued, while describing his role as trying “to help in the back office.”