Race for UK Chancellor heats up — the worst job in Britain?
Andy Burnham's incoming UK government must appoint a Chancellor of the Exchequer who will be the public face of its economic programme — and the person who takes the blame if it fails. The British economy faces decades of low growth, record borrowing, high taxes and heavy spending commitments, leaving almost no fiscal room to manoeuvre. The new chancellor will need to deliver quick results to win back voters who have lost faith in politicians.
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LONDON — Andy Burnham’s pick for chancellor will become the face of his economic vision for the country — and the person who takes the blame for any failures in turning things around.
For all the jostling and jockeying in Westminster, it might be the worst job in Britain.
The next occupant of No. 11 will have to jumpstart the economy — and fast — to win over voters increasingly despairing of politicians who have failed to make their lives better.
It’s an enormous challenge.
The British economy is stuck in the doldrums, weighed down by decades of persistently low economic growth, and boxed in by record borrowing rates, high taxes and big spending bills.
And there is little room for maneuver. The government is desperate for money to spend — see the headaches current Prime Minister Keir Starmer has faced getting the numbers to stack up for defense spending — but businesses and taxpayers can’t stomach higher taxes, and any attempt to borrow more could spook the country’s creditors in the bond market.
Climate Change and Net Zero Secretary Ed Miliband, who one senior civil servant predicted would take a more “muscular,” whole-of-government approach than other chancellors, at a London Climate Week reception on June 24, 2026. | Yui Mok/AFP via Getty Images
To make matters worse, U.S. President Donald Trump’s war in Iran threatens to push up energy prices, spiral inflation again and force the Bank of England to keep rates higher for longer — crimping the economy further while making voters feel the pinch.
“The choice of chancellor is pretty critical to how the premiership is going to go,” said Ruth Curtice, chief executive of the left-leaning Resolution Foundation think tank.
Yet, despite all those pitfalls, there is no shortage of contenders for the job.
Westminster is rife with briefings back and forth from admirers and detractors over who’s garnering favor with Burnham’s inner circle. Burnham, who still needs to clear party hurdles before he can become prime minister, isn’t expected to name key Cabinet posts until the days before or after he officially takes up residence in Downing Street — but the names most commonly touted for the key economic role so far include top Burnham ally Ed Miliband, current Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood and Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden, as well as others including Burnham’s former leadership rival Wes Streeting.
“Andy wants a chancellor who he feels completely aligned with … he wants someone he feels he’s very politically aligned with so there is no sense of friction between No. 10 and No. 11,” said one close Burnham ally, granted anonymity to speak freely.
The King of the North speaks
Burnham’s march on Westminster comes with a pledge to do things differently. He’s pitched for more “public control” of key industries driven by his experience as Greater Manchester mayor.
The man dubbed the “King of the North” by some supporters will start to spell out exactly what that could mean at a national level in a speech on Monday in his home city focusing on the economy and devolution.
He will pledge to put no less than a “circuit-breaker” on an economic model that he says favors the prosperous south of England over the former industrial north.
Burnham will promise to create an outpost of 10 Downing Street in the north, reform state procurement and devolve more control of funding and investment decisions to regional leaders than any previous prime minister. Aides are looking at letting regional authorities keep and reinvest 100 percent of the income tax they generate in their area, alongside existing plans to let them keep 100 percent of business rates.
But it is Burnham’s choice of chancellor that will most clearly signal which direction he is planning on taking the country as a whole.
The different names in the frame represent very different visions on the economy.
Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, to the left of the party, has been touted as an obvious frontrunner for the job, with significant experience in the Treasury under former Prime Minister Gordon Brown in the late 2010s. He was in close contact with Burnham in recent months, having one-to-one phone calls with the presumptive PM.
Wes Streeting, who backed Burnham after considering a tilt at the leadership himself, speaking in London on June 16, 2026. | Alishia Abodunde/Getty Images
“He saw Gordon’s budgets up close,” said one Miliband-backing Labour MP. “He was the one fundamentally writing the budgets at the end of it all. Gordon was setting the vision, but it was Ed Miliband and Ed Balls doing the actual grunt work.”
“Ed is our best economic brain,” said a second pro-Miliband Labour MP. “He is the best on affordability.”
Perhaps the greatest argument for — and against — Miliband is that a Treasury he ran would be about more than just the Treasury.
As energy secretary, he has a reputation for attending cross-cutting meetings in other departments that could help build net zero infrastructure when other ministers in his position wouldn’t have bothered.
One senior civil servant predicted he would take a more “muscular,” whole-of-government approach than other chancellors.
A Labour official remarked: “He would pretty much be running the whole government.”
Don’t forget the bond markets
But Miliband could also be a risky appointment for Burnham— as shown by the nerves and whispering campaign against him among many MPs in Westminster.
The Greater Manchester mayor has been forced to walk back comments that the country shouldn’t be “in hock” to the bond markets.
Should bond markets turn against Burnham, it could blow billions from the Treasury’s coffers to meet higher interest payments.
Former Conservative Prime Minister Liz Truss tested the power of bond traders to her detriment in 2022 when her plans for debt-funded tax cuts and an energy bailout blew up the market and forced her resignation.
Current Chancellor Rachel Reeves has won over the markets by sticking to firm borrowing and spending rules, which Burnham has pledged to follow.
But the City of London would eye his intentions more skeptically should he appoint Miliband.
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, whose name still comes up to work on the economy but reportedly doesn’t want the job, arrives at 10 Downing Street to attend a cabinet meeting on June 23, 2026. | Toby Shepheard/AFP via Getty Images
“If he wants to reassure the City, he should not appoint Ed Miliband,” said one City executive. “Even if we’re going down the route of ‘Miliband might not be as bad as people think’, that’s still going to take a lot of explaining, and there isn’t really time.”
Burnham’s task will be to signal there is change coming to voters, while making sure he is credible with the City at the same time.
“You’ve got to have a narrative of change and doing things differently, haven’t you?” the executive said. “But at the same time, you’ve got to recognize the geopolitics, the economic environment, the interconnectedness of everything, and the bond markets really do matter.”
The City also fears a swing to the left in No. 11 could bring a tax raid on London’s banks, which would immediately set a different tone than the friendly relationship under Reeves.
And it’s not just business getting nervous.
Some of the country’s biggest trade unions are also fearful of Miliband because they believe his drive for net zero is putting jobs at risk — though many increasingly expect a compromise around new drilling in the North Sea.
Runners and riders
With so much pushback to Miliband, Burnham could instead look for a figure to the center or right of the party.
Former Health Secretary Wes Streeting, who backed Burnham after considering a tilt at the leadership himself, has been floated and could help buttress concerns.
“Bond markets are not bond villains,” he said in a speech earlier this month after resigning from government. He’s also pledged to bring in tougher wealth taxes.
Despite Burnham’s team insisting that the conversation is still live, one person who is close to the incoming PM said the idea of Streeting as Chancellor is “not on the cards at all” and claimed “he is trying to brief himself into existence.”
Then there’s Shabana Mahmood, who reportedly doesn’t want the job .
However, the idea of Mahmood working on the economy has persisted. Months before Burnham had a firm prospect of returning to parliament, MPs allied to the home secretary, who sits on Labour’s economically left-wing but socially conservative “Blue Labour” flank, were talking up her views on the economy.
Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden, whose name comes up persistently in the Treasury speculation, arriving for a cabinet meeting at Downing Street on June 23, 2026. | Ben Montgomery/Getty Images
Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden’s name comes up persistently in the Treasury speculation among Burnham allies, despite his record as a Blairite fiscal hawk.
“There is a sense among Labour MPs that he’s been moving stuff in the right direction on skills and welfare,” said one Labour official supportive of McFadden. He has been in touch with Burnham’s team since the Makerfield by-election, and traveled up during the campaign to speak to Burnham about youth employment policies.
Or there’s Darren Jones, the former chief secretary to the Treasury who is on Labour’s centrist wing — and said he was persuaded by a conversation with Burnham on the economy. However, he was until recently an ardent defender of outgoing Prime Minister Keir Starmer. One ally of Burnham responded to the idea of Jones as chancellor with a crying-with-laughter emoji.
And there’s always the continuity candidate, Reeves herself, who has been trying to cling to the job despite briefings from Burnham’s camp that she would be moved to a lesser role.
Move fast, don’t break things
But perhaps the biggest problem for Burnham and his choice for No. 11 will be the need for speed.
A difficult budget is expected in the fall, and a countdown of economic forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility will start ticking 10 weeks before the chancellor delivers it.
Curtice said it is possible to tweak some definitions under Britain’s fiscal rules to allow more borrowing for investment, as Reeves has done, but “I don’t think there is scope, however you design your rules, to borrow loads more money. And therefore we shouldn’t get distracted from the question of — are the current spending plans the right ones? Or does he want to spend more than that and if so, how will he pay for that?”
Since winning the by-election, Burnham has also brought in credible economists, namely former Bank of England economist Andy Haldane and Jim O’Neill, a former chief economist at Goldman Sachs, who have their own ideas for what should come next.
Those range from splitting up the Treasury, raising war bonds, streamlining the tax system and bringing utilities into public ownership to allowing more borrowing to drive investment into infrastructure projects and regional development.
Some of those plans could take years to bear fruit — all while Reeves’ existing plans, such as tighter public spending in the late 2020s and freezes on income tax thresholds, have yet to work their way through the system.
Reeves has repeatedly insisted she has the right roadmap for the economy — but bruised voters may not have the patience to wait around to see if she’s right.
Will the new UK Chancellor succeed in reviving the British economy?
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