Farage faces polling hit from any deal with Lowe's Restore Britain splinter group

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LONDON — Nigel Farage knows he has a Restore Britain problem. Striking a pact with his rival is not a silver bullet.

New polling shared with POLITICO shows a deal between the right-wing Reform UK and a further-right splinter group led by Rupert Lowe would put off some of the former Conservative voters Reform UK is trying to attract.

Farage has made replacing the Conservatives as the main party on the right of British politics his aim — but the Restore outfit Lowe formed after being kicked out of Farage’s team is sapping away support from Reform.

Earlier this month, Lowe offered to put his differences with Farage aside to form a pact with Reform, and Reform officials have been taking Lowe’s public offer of a pact seriously.

“They would like to work with us because he [Lowe] needs us to survive in the long run,” as one Farage adviser, granted anonymity to discuss the rift, put it.

But Lowe’s deal comes with conditions — he advocates mass deportations, including of women and children, a ban on halal and kosher slaughter, a referendum on the death penalty, and the exclusion of Conservative ministers from a future Cabinet.

Luke Tryl, U.K. director of More in Common, which conducted polling on right-wing pacts earlier this month, said a deal with Restore would be “more likely to damage than bolster Reform’s fragile voter coalition.”

“Some Reform voters are open to Lowe’s messages, but they risk deterring the wider pool of voters that Reform would need to win an election.

“It seems that a pact with Restore would cross too many lines for Reform’s wavering voters: this group wants to see Farage condemn racist views, retain a distance with figures on the hard-right like Tommy Robinson, and avoid ethnonationalist positions,” he said.

More damage than good

His think tank’s survey of 2,128 adults conducted between Aug. 7 and Aug. 10 found that a Farage tie-up with Restore would trigger a significant drop off in support from respondents who voted Conservative in 2024 but are now considering voting Reform. That metric drops from 45 percent open to Reform to 39 percent.

Some Reform voters are also put off by the prospect of a Restore pact. The poll suggests 93 percent of voters who backed Farage at the last general election would do so again without a Restore pact, but the figure fell to 83 percent with the prospect of a Lowe team-up.

Leader of Restore Britain Rupert Lowe MP speaks to the media where votes were being counted at The Edge on June 18, 2026 in Wigan. | Ryan Jenkinson/Getty Images

Overall, the polling suggests that a Restore-pact would reduce those willing to consider voting Reform from 32 percent to 30 percent.

Restore is only hovering at around 4 percent in voting intention polling , but the survey found up to 20 percent of Brits would “consider” voting Restore — including half of those who voted Reform at the last general election in 2024.

And Restore is particularly popular with those who didn’t vote at all in 2024 with some 53 percent of non-voters in the survey saying they are considering backing Restore.

The first-past-the-post system used in British general elections — where only one MP will represent each area — means a fracture on the political spectrum can hand the more united flank of politics the keys to Downing Street.

Yet there are also dangers for Farage in not doing a pact with Restore. Farage himself has conceded that Restore has the potential to do Reform “ great harm ” by splitting the right-wing vote.

Dangers of no deal

The prospect of a Reform-Restore pact appears, for now to be on ice .

Advisers on both sides of the right-wing divide said the pair haven’t held talks since Lowe published an image of WhatsApp Farage sent him and accused him of “ outright lying ” over efforts to set up a call.

For Lowe’s part, one Restore official argued the “ball is in their [Reform’s] court” now, pinning hopes on fresh pressure to agree a pact coming if Restore reaches higher polling ground.

Reform UK branding is seen scattered around Clacton on August 13, 2026 in Clacton-on-Sea. | Ben Montgomery/Getty Images

“I suspect if we continue climbing in the polls and scoring well and their decline continues then pressure may increase,” they said.

Restore’s national polling may be fairly low — but the party has been exceeding expectations in recent contests. Restore got 8.7 percent of the first-round vote in the Greater Manchester mayoralty and 6.8 percent in the Makerfield by-election.

Thursday may give another indication for how the right-wing splits can play out in a council by-election in a Conservative stronghold in Dover . Both Restore and Reform are fighting the three-way contest.

Conservative pact

Doing a deal with the center-right Conservatives would also come with its own dangers for Farage — something he and Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch appear cognizant of given they have both dismissed the idea.

Support for Reform fell from 32 percent to 28 percent when the Tory pact scenario was put to respondents.

The 93 percent of Reform voters who backed Farage in 2024 and would support him again dropped to 79 percent if he did a deal with the Conservatives.

That underlines the challenge Farage faces in becoming too closely associated with the long-established center-right party, despite some of its most senior figures defecting from the Conservatives.

Deals or no deals, the mere presence of rival outfits is causing major headaches for those trying to prevent Andy Burnham staying in power.