US–Iran war strains American missile stockpiles, alarming Australia

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The Iran war is straining U.S. munitions stockpiles, causing concern in Canberra as Australia scrambles to prepare itself for potential conflict in the Indo-Pacific.

Canberra’s defense plans depend heavily on U.S.-made weapons. The prospect of the U.S. needing to replenish its own stockpiles at the expense of foreign orders puts pressure on allies, including Australia, to revive their own missile industries.

A study from the Center for Strategic and International Studies reported that by May, 39 days into the conflict, the U.S. had used over a thousand Tomahawk missiles and production rates were unlikely to keep pace.

Charles Edel, Australia chair for CSIS, warned the Iran war was “putting an enormous strain” on U.S. stockpiles and was “likely extending the timeline to replenish them.”

“This will put missile deliveries to allies like Australia at a growing risk of delay — potentially exposing gaps in their defenses,” he told POLITICO.

Coalition defense spokesperson James Paterson said recent conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza and Iran have caused a global shortage and a “very long queue to be resupplied.”

“If a high intensity conflict broke out in the Indo-Pacific, Australia would be dangerously exposed with limited stocks of munitions for strike and interceptors for air and missile defense, or the ability to manufacture them at scale,” Paterson told POLITICO.

Former U.S. military officials, meanwhile, are urging Canberra to prepare for a possible shortage of U.S. weapons if a conflict over Taiwan spreads to Australia. They say Australia should accelerate the development of a domestic industry producing military underwater drones.

Militaries deploy underwater drones for purposes including surveillance and intelligence, mine detection and as kamikaze offensive weapons.

“This is a great opportunity for Australia to become, along with Taiwan and Japan, a source of asymmetric weapons development — that’s a much easier entry point than fighter jets, helicopters or shipboard combat systems,” said Mark Montgomery, former director of operations at U.S. Pacific Command. “It’s an opening for Australia to enter the market and provide products that the United States and other allies and partners can purchase.”

U.S. military operations against Iran have exhausted the bulk of the Pentagon’s global stockpile of long-range missiles, CBS News reported earlier this month , citing administration sources. That prompted President Donald Trump to lash out against what he called treasonous “leakers” allegedly misrepresenting the state of U.S. military preparedness.

“The U.S. has massive amounts of ‘munitions,’ especially of certain types. Additionally, large amounts are being manufactured and shipped to the U.S. as needed. Defense companies are building the largest number of plants and factories in our country’s history,” Trump said in a Truth Social post earlier this month .

Despite that rhetoric, administration officials worry that a shortfall in missiles needed to counter potential Chinese aggression against Taiwan — a scenario that U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned last year could occur as early as 2027 — may undermine an adequate defense of the island.

A spokesperson for Defense Minister Richard Marles declined to comment when asked whether the government feared its own munitions orders would be delayed as a result of the Iran war.

“We are making missiles in Australia for the first time since the early 1970s,” the spokesperson said, promising that “some of the most advanced missiles in the world” will be built in Australia.

‘Of course they will prioritize themselves’

A renewed, large-scale Iran campaign could reduce the United States’ ability to sustain defense of Taiwan during the next few years, creating a window of greater opportunity for Beijing.

CSIS’s Edel said the munitions drain applied to a variety of ordinances — Tomahawks, THAAD interceptors, Patriot missiles, SM-6 ship-based surface-to-air missiles, and JASSM and Precision Strike Missiles.

The munitions used against Iran, including Tomahawks , JASSM and PrSM, could be key in a conflict that involved striking Chinese ships, missile launchers and air-defense systems.

Efforts to replenish deleted stocks will take several years.

If a crisis began while U.S. stocks were low, Washington would face difficult choices over defending bases and ships; striking Chinese launchers and naval forces; and supporting regional partners including Japan and Australia.

“Whether it’s the U.S. or another country, if we are entirely dependent on that country for production of something that is critical to our war effort, our critical war stocks, of course they will prioritize themselves,” maritime security specialist Jennifer Parker told POLITICO.

Australia defense officials must “shift to a pre-conflict mindset, away from slow, risk-averse processes towards investment and manufacturing that uplifts Australia’s domestic guided munitions production,” Paterson, the Coalition defense spokesperson, said.

The Pentagon moved Aug. 17 to lift annual production of Tomahawk missiles from around 60 to over 1,000 via a $22.9 billion, seven-year contract to Raytheon.

Australia has an order for roughly 220 American-made Tomahawk missiles, and its defense procurement scheme is largely reliant on American-made weaponry.

The government also announced a $736 million acquisition of long-range AIM-260 Joint Advanced Tactical Missiles, on Aug. 6, the first sale of those missiles outside of the U.S. Washington has approved the sale of up to 450 of missiles , while Australia’s funding commitment suggests the initial order is around 90 missiles. The catch: the missiles aren’t due to be delivered until 2033.

‘Is it fast enough?’

Australia’s domestic munitions industry stagnated following the Cold War, entering into “strategic drift and complacency,” according to Parker.

John Fry, managing director of Kongsberg Defence Australia, agrees, describing a broader trend across the West, of “significantly decreased” ability to produce guided weapons.

Officials have moved urgently since 2023 to revive the industry.

The centerpiece of Australia’s efforts is a Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordnance Enterprise constructing two purpose-built guided-missile factories by 2029 and an Australian munitions factory for longer-range artillery ammunition by 2030.

Parker acknowledged the progress, but said: “Is it enough and is it fast enough? No.”

A spokesperson for Marles declined to comment when asked whether the government feared its own munitions orders would be delayed as a result of the Iran War.

“We are making missiles in Australia for the first time since the early 1970s,”, the spokesperson said, promising that “some of the most advanced missiles in the world” will be built in Australia.

Kongsberg is the only non-American partner for the GWEO, and is currently developing a missile manufacturing and maintenance factory at Newcastle Airport, near a major RAAF base 200 kilometers north of Sydney. The goal is production capacity beyond what the Australian government says it needs, to be ready for any surge in demand.

Two weapons — Kongsberg’s naval strike missile and joint strike missile — which can be launched from an array of ships and land vehicles are expected to enter production by the end of 2027.

Northrop Grumman Australia declined to comment.

Lockheed Martin Australia did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

‘Move at warp speed’

CSIS’s Edel said the Iran conflict validated Canberra’s local production goals. “What was once a gradual, decadelong buildup now needs to move at warp speed to close stockpile gaps and strengthen allied capacity,” he said.

“Speeding up Australian weapons production doesn’t just meet the Australian Defence Force’s own needs — it feeds directly into the broader allied inventory, expanding the joint allied magazine, boosting readiness, and shifting deterrence in America and its allies’ favor.”

Paterson said the government had a “bad habit of exaggerating what is happening” in the GWEO, saying it was passing “small-scale final assembly off as sovereign manufacturing.”

“They try to take credit for announcing missile orders that won’t be fulfilled for years in the future while hiding the delivery date,” he said.

Last month, Kevin Rudd, former Australian Prime Minister now Global President and CEO of the Asia Society, cited depleted munitions stockpiles as he framed 2028 as a dangerous flashpoint in the Indo-Pacific.

Rudd argued a confluence of factors that year, the final year of Trump’s presidency and the possible reelection of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party in Taiwan, as potential “tripwires” for a conflict. “Not yet a probability, but a rising possibility. We need to be clear-sighted about that,” Rudd said.

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