Mélenchon closes in on Le Pen ahead of France's 2027 presidential race

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PARIS — Brussels’ nightmare scenario for France’s 2027 presidential election is edging closer to reality.

A poll published Monday showed far-left France Unbowed leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon scoring well enough in multiple scenarios to defeat the panoply of more centrist candidates and qualify for the runoff where he’d face far-right frontrunner Marine Le Pen — raising the specter of a battle of extremes in the April contest. France’s presidential election sees the top two candidates advance to a second round if no one scores more than 50 percent of the vote.

The survey, conducted by Toluna Harris Interactive for broadcasters M6 and RTL , found Le Pen with a commanding lead of at least 16 points ahead of her nearest competitor in every scenario tested.

The National Rally leader has long been the favorite to win, and Mélenchon’s rise raises the risk of a runoff between two candidates who hold deeply skeptical views of the EU and NATO.

In one scenario tested, which includes three candidates from the political center, the France Unbowed leader would receive 16 percent of the vote ahead of former prime ministers Édouard Philippe on 14 percent, and Gabriel Attal on 8 percent. Le Pen came in well ahead of all of them with 35 percent.

Without Attal in the contest, the poll found Mélenchon and Philippe would be tied for second place at 17 percent each. Moderates have for weeks voiced concern that the field is too crowded and risks ceding the election to the political extremes.

“I’ve been warning for months of the likelihood of a face-off between Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon,” said government spokesperson Maud Bregeon, who is supporting Philippe’s candidacy. “The likelihood of this risk has increased, unsurprisingly.”