Conte casts doubt on Ukraine aid, exposing Italian left's deep divisions

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Former Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, who leads the left-wing 5Star Movement, set off a political firestorm this week by casting doubt on further military aid to Ukraine if the center-left wins the next election.

Conte’s comments exposed deep divisions over Ukraine within the left as it prepares for a general election next year. POLITICO’s Poll of polls shows 5Stars and the center-left Democratic Party are neck-and-neck with the right-wing bloc led by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, and Italian public opinion shows little support for aid to Ukraine.

In an interview with Italy’s La Stampa , Conte said his party initially backed military aid for Kyiv “because there was a clear military imbalance compared to Russia,” but now that Ukraine “has a highly equipped military arsenal,” he said his party will “continue to abstain from voting in favor of further shipments but to push for a shift toward negotiations.”

The final decision on whether to continue sending aid to Ukraine, Conte said, should be determined by a primary of left-wing voters, who will be asked to decide on who leads the coalition into the next election. “We’ll unravel this knot with the primaries. We’ll let Italians decide,” he said.

Conte emphasized that the main objective is to reach a negotiated solution to the war by talking to both Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

“Does Putin not want to negotiate? Let’s sit down and talk; let’s see what happens,” said Conte, underlining that any peace deal has to protect Kyiv’s interests.

Giuseppe Conte and Volodymyr Zelenskyy before a meeting at Palazzo Chigi back in 2020 in Rome, Italy. | Antonio Masiello/Getty Images

The 5Stars leader also opposes increasing defense budgets — a key promise by Meloni to bring Italy in line with NATO’s new spending target.

But Conte’s words opened an immediate divide with the Democratic Party, which is the biggest grouping on the center-left.

Party leader Elly Schlein on Monday rejected the idea of Ukraine policy being set in a primary vote. “It doesn’t work that way. First comes the program agreed upon by the entire alliance, and then the primaries, because whoever wins them must lead the entire coalition, not just their own party,” she said.

Schlein is expected to compete with Conte over leading the center-left.

Lorenzo Guerini, a former defense minister and one of the leaders of the Democratic Party, on Tuesday warned Conte : “If he splits the broad coalition, he’ll bear the responsibility. We support Ukraine by sending weapons. The PD will support Kyiv.”

Military aid to Ukraine is a “nonnegotiable issue. Period,” he said.

But Ukraine divides the country’s right as well. Meloni’s current coalition partners in the right-wing League are uneasy about supporting Ukraine and also balk at boosting the defense budget.

Still, that didn’t stop top government figures from lambasting Conte over Ukraine.

“Conte is free to side with Russia, the aggressor. Maybe he should ask his ally, the PD, if they agree,” said Deputy Prime Minister and Forza Italia Secretary Antonio Tajani . “Let the Italian left tell us whether it stands with the Ukrainian people or with Putin. Whether it stands with democracy or with dictatorships,” he added.

While support for Ukraine is creating problems for both Italy’s left and the right, the country’s next election could come as soon as spring.

If Meloni falls short of being able to form the next government after the election, she could broaden her coalition to include the far-right National Future party led by former Gen. Roberto Vannacci — but his grouping also opposes military aid to Ukraine.

Italy has deep pacifist roots, and Meloni’s strong support for Ukraine is at odds with public opinion.

Italians are the least likely to support Ukraine among major West European countries, with a YouGov survey earlier this year finding that only 32 percent of Italians care if it wins against Russia.

Italian military aid for Ukraine comes to only 0.17 percent of GDP, one of the lowest levels in Europe, according to the Kiel Institute’s Ukraine Support Tracker.