Farage faces biggest crisis yet as Reform UK poll ratings begin to slide

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LONDON — Over the past decade, Nigel Farage has ripped political conventions apart, dictated the debate on Brexit and immigration, and driven his party into contention to win the next general election.

But now the hard-right Reform UK leader faces what may be the biggest challenge in a career suddenly engulfed by troubles.

From a far more potent rival in new Prime Minister Andy Burnham to a resurgent Tory party, pressure over his finances, and a dubious gamble on a special election, Farage and his team are feeling the heat. And their poll ratings have started to slide.

“Farage is facing something of a perfect storm,” said Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London and an expert on the right in Britain. “But while he’s on the ropes he’s by no means on the floor, let alone out for the count.”

Farage insists he won’t be “cowed” by what he describes as intimidation and says he is preparing for a general election as soon as this autumn, although Burnham has said he has no imminent plans to call one.

It’s an open question whether the Burnham bounce in the polls and the dip in Farage’s fortunes mark a decisive shift in momentum in British politics or merely a blip. What is clear is that the challenges facing Reform are substantial, and growing.

Farage’s side admits that Burnham has lifted the Labour government since he took office on July 20 and hurt Reform with a blizzard of policy pledges and energetic social media videos that have dominated media attention.

Reform’s leader, meanwhile, has been beset by questions over whether he broke parliamentary rules by not declaring a £5 million donation. Last month he quit parliament to trigger a special election in his constituency of Clacton on the east coast of England, vowing to take on the establishment he says is trying to stitch him up over the furor.

But with none of the mainstream parties willing to play ball, the contest has assumed an air of farce: Farage’s only well-known opponent is a candidate who goes by Count Binface, a serial joker who dresses up as a trash can.

As if that weren’t damaging enough, the Conservative Party that Farage has spent much of his career tormenting is staging its own recovery in the polls, as leader Kemi Badenoch strengthens her position. Even the number of migrants arriving in small boats has fallen, robbing Reform of its signature attack line to use against the government.

The result is a notable slide in the polls both for the party and for Farage himself.

Polling pains

According to POLITICO’s polling partners, London-based Public First, Farage’s net approval rating has dropped from -16 in early May to -21 at the end of July. Among people who voted Conservative in 2024 — a key target group for Reform — his rating has fallen by 15 points over the same period.

“Reform has lost significant support among the people who historically voted Conservative since the local elections,” said Seb Wride, head of polling at Public First. “Rather than being able to get on the front foot during the early weeks of Burnham’s leadership, the Clacton by-election is making Reform seem less relevant, and Labour has been able to largely ignore them while defining what they stand for under new leadership.”

In a slew of headline voting-intention polls in recent days, Burnham’s Labour has pulled level with Reform and in some cases taken the lead, ending 15 months of consistent national poll leads for Farage’s party.

Andy Burnham walks near the White Cliffs of Dover in England during a visit to HM Coastguard Maritime Rescue Coordination Centre on Aug. 2, 2026. | Jack Taylor/ AFP via Getty Images

“We have been here before. We have dealt with difficult moments before,” said Gawain Towler, a board member of Reform UK and the party’s former communications chief. The attacks on Farage over his financial arrangements are unfair, and come from questionable sources, he said, though they have caused damage even so.

“There has been an impact and the Burnham bounce does also have an impact on the polls of course. The two things are happening together,” Towler said. “But what’s interesting is the impact these attacks are having on our supporters is very little because they expect the establishment to behave like this.”

The great establishment stitch-up

Public First’s analysis suggests there is truth to the idea that Farage’s core support has solidified as a result of his recent difficulties: During the same period that his overall approval rating has fallen nationally, from early May to the end of July, it has risen by 13 points among people who voted Reform at the last election in 2024.

According to Towler, there is evidence that “the Establishment” is going after Reform with a series of underhanded leaks and attacks. That narrative — of a vengeful elite intent on punishing the people’s champion and the underdog — has proven powerful for populist leaders such as Farage, Donald Trump, Marine Le Pen in France and many others.

Like Farage, however, Burnham is portraying himself as an outsider who is on the side of ordinary voters against the elite. The next election, whenever it comes, may be decided by which of these two can best embody the insurgent spirit.

“Nigel Farage is the most scrutinized politician in British politics and he has been for quite a long time — because of what he represents,” Towler said. “He is the leader of a political party, one that threatens not just the political establishment but the establishment across the board.”

Towler argued that the British establishment is trying to shake Reform’s confidence and soften it up for an election campaign, likening the assault to the prelude to the World War I Battle of Messines, with “heavy artillery for weeks and weeks, trying to break morale.”

“If they manage to take Farage out, there’s a general election tomorrow. That’s what they’re trying to do,” he said. “They’re trying to break our morale as a party and I think you’ll find we have more morale, and we’re made of sterner stuff than they suppose.”

Walking away

Queen Mary’s Bale said that while Farage is in difficulty, his situation is “serious but not terminal — not yet anyway.” If polls worsen and the financial scandals deepen significantly, that could change, he said. “If he decides to throw in the towel — and given his record and his thin skin, nobody should rule out that possibility — Reform is in serious trouble.”

Farage has history of walking away. He quit as leader of his previous party, the UK Independence Party, after losing his bid to win a parliamentary seat in 2015, only to be persuaded to return a few days later.

He also stood down as Reform leader and announced he would be retiring from politics in 2021, but jumped back into campaigning when former PM Rishi Sunak called a general election in 2024.

That comeback decision, according to Towler, was the moment Farage reconciled himself to the hard reality of challenging the political establishment to win power.

“He knew it was going to be really hard. He knew that not just him, but a lot of other people around him — his friends, his long-term friends and allies and supporters — are also getting attacked,” Towler said. “And this will continue. We know it will continue. But we then say, hold on, this is our country. We can’t give up. How can we possibly give up?”