US allies hold back as Iran war rapidly escalates across the region

Full text

Many of America’s allies around the world are growing more comfortable waiting out the Iran war, even as the Trump administration argues their help is needed to end a conflict that’s rapidly spiraling out of control.

In recent days, Tehran has attacked Jordan, Egypt and Kuwait. The Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen have lobbed missiles at Saudi Arabia. And the U.S. has responded by hitting dozens of Islamic Revolutionary Guards’ targets in Iran. That has spooked markets and raised the specter of a widening regional conflict that could slash oil and gas exports and imperil the global economy.

European and Asian diplomats said their countries aren’t ready to risk the safety of their citizens until Washington and Tehran agree to stop shooting at each other.

It’s an indication of the leverage that many U.S. allies feel they have at this moment in the war, when the U.S. appears to be running out of options to contain the conflict or reopen the Strait of Hormuz for oil shipments. Countries are looking to avoid getting pulled in, or if they do get involved — do so on their terms.

“We are expecting at any moment a request from the U.S. regarding possible joint actions” in the Gulf, an Asian diplomat said.

Worsening oil and gas prices would influence how it responds to such a request, said the person, who like others, was granted anonymity because of the sensitivity of their comments. But any dispatch of military or civilian assets to the region would require “a truce and a confirmation of freedom of navigation through the Hormuz Strait.”

A multi-country coalition forged by France and the United Kingdom last month has already conditioned any such move on a confirmed truce between Washington and Tehran.

A decision toward “getting more involved would surprise me,” given those conditions, said a European diplomat in Washington.

Other countries have more targeted demands.

“We have approved a very broad parliamentary mandate to participate more or less in any Hormuz operation demanded by the U.S., of course taking into account our capacities,” one Eastern European official said. “We always saw Iran as a clear ally of Russia in its war of aggression against Ukraine and we are happy that the U.S. started to see it.”

But, the official said, that support will come at a cost to Washington. “We want more U.S. troops in the Baltics — the best brigade instead of battalion or at least more battalions and on a more permanent basis.”

And Ukraine insists that its offer to provide drone interceptors to the U.S. and Gulf countries still stands — especially if Kyiv gets weapons in return.

“We are ready to support those who support us,” said a Ukrainian official. “Ukraine has vast experience, modern technologies and expertise to build counter-drone systems. Both the United States and our partners in the Middle East are interested in cooperation with Ukraine, and this is mutual.”

The White House declined to comment on whether allies are stepping up to assist the U.S. in containing the spreading conflict in the Middle East. Instead it said in a statement: “Iran’s recklessness is on full display as they commit acts of terrorism against their neighbors – and they are more isolated than ever before as a result.”

The Iran conflict has compounded divisions among former rock-solid U.S. allies and partners still smarting from the Trump administration’s aggressive foreign and trade policies geared to high tariffs, threats to invade Greenland and a fixation with making Canada the 51st state.

The one area where European allies are most primed to help is in demining and providing security assistance in the strait, though the U.K. and France, among others, have informed Washington they will not send warships until there is a solid and working ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran.

Other countries are just trying to keep their heads down to attempt to avoid Trump’s wrath, even though they’re fed up with the war and worried about further delays in U.S. arms sales.

“The main feeling in Europe is weariness toward the whack-a-mole dynamic of the war,” said Joel Linnainmäki, a former Finnish foreign ministry official. “Whenever there is a cessation of hostilities it is followed by an inevitable round of escalation by either side. At this point, European leaders are doing their best to fly under Trump’s radar to avoid new demands for Europeans to intervene in some way.”

Some countries are also balancing the risk of being seen too close to the U.S.

“Those Southeast Asian countries that have maintained ties to Iran throughout the conflict that have allowed for a continuation of oil supplies won’t want to participate in any actions that could be seen as aligned with the U.S. military campaign against Iran,” an Asian diplomat said.

Tehran negotiated agreements with both Malaysia and Thailand to allow shipments of oil to pass through the strait to cushion the impact of the conflict on their economies.

The initiatives that allies have joined in order to try to address the peril of closed waterways are independent of U.S. efforts.

France and the United Kingdom rallied some 40 countries in May to join the Multinational Military Mission aimed to secure safe passage for shipping through the strait following a ceasefire. Naval vessels from mission partners including the U.K., Germany and Italy are anchored in the Arabian Sea awaiting an end to active hostilities.

Saudi Arabia announced the creation of a “multinational maritime defense coalition” of 14 Muslim-majority countries including Pakistan, Turkey and Djibouti on Thursday, according to a Saudi Foreign Ministry statement.

The Saudi-led group will combine resources to counter threats to global trade and “protect international sea lanes” in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and Bab al-Mandab Strait. Dozens of additional countries attended the meeting, affirmed their support for the initiative and could still join it, the statement added.

The State Department and diplomatic missions of the European Union, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Canada and Australia didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment regarding whether they might join the group.

Jerry Wu contributed to this report.