Burnham bounce: Labour surges as UK Greens hit lowest support since October

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LONDON — Britain’s new prime minister, Andy Burnham, is playing the Greens at their own game.

Zack Polanski’s party had been basking in the glow of unprecedented local election wins in May after capitalizing on Labour’s tanking support under the centrist Keir Starmer.

But Labour’s charismatic new leader in No. 10 Downing Street is stopping them in their tracks.

An opinion poll by More in Common published Monday put Labour on top for the first time since March 2025, with its surge coming at the expense of the Greens, who recorded their lowest share of the vote since October last year when Polanski became leader. A separate YouGov poll also released Monday showed no change from last week, though it noted the party is down eight points from a February peak.

Polanski insists he is the “opposite of worried about Andy Burnham,” predicting Labour MPs’ “last roll of the dice” in switching leader won’t improve things.

But a senior Green Party local politician, granted anonymity to speak frankly, acknowledged: “It’s going to be difficult, there is going to be a Burnham bounce,” warning the party needs to “sharpen those key lines that give us differentiation.”

The party is already attacking Burnham for employing corporate lobbyists like his chief of staff James Purnell, and claiming the new prime minister’s rhetoric on Gaza, public ownership and homelessness is hollow, and does not represent a change from Starmer.

It is also on a drive to find more polished spokespeople to hit the airwaves.

Drawing the battle lines

One area where the Greens see a dividing line with Burnham is over Gaza.

Starmer’s response to Israel’s military action in Gaza — not calling for an immediate ceasefire, and saying in an interview Israel had the “right” to cut off the supply of power and water to Gaza — saw desertions to the Greens, especially in Muslim communities which had traditionally voted Labour.

Burnham tried to distance himself from that response even before becoming prime minister, apologizing and saying the party “didn’t get it right.”

But Polanski argues this does not go far enough.

Burnham delivers his inaugural speech as U.K.’s new prime minister, in London on July 20, 2026. | Ryan Jenkinson/Getty Images

“I just think there’s a pattern over and over again of saying the right thing but then not doing the right thing,” the Green leader said in an interview with POLITICO last week.

“What are you materially going to change? And we’ve not heard any talk about ending arms sales with Israel, ending intelligence, or ending trade with illegal settlements,” he added.

The Greens also see immigration as another battle line after Burnham backed controversial asylum changes in a parliamentary vote before becoming prime minister.

In Gorton and Denton, where the Greens overturned Labour’s 2024 majority of 13,415 at a by-election in February, campaigners said that opposing “cruel” immigration policies was a vote-winner.

Kerry McCarthy, the Labour MP for Bristol East, a Green target for the next election, said Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood’s immigration reforms — including changes to indefinite leave to remain — are a point of contention in her constituency.

The rhetoric coming out of the Home Office “creates a one-way narrative, that we are only about control and are not capable of compassion,” she said.

“It goes to voters’ values,” she warned. “And our messaging doesn’t land with Reform voters — they will never believe that we are trying to bring down immigration, even when we’ve actually been remarkably successful at doing so — but it does land with Green voters, who think we’re being really harsh.”

All about the likes

Polanski also appears to have met his match when it comes to digital communication.

The Green Party leader’s political broadcasts that racked up millions of likes and shares across social media were seen as a departure from the stale videos coming out of Labour HQ under Starmer.

Burnham is already pumping out more engaging online content, including him chatting to people in Cardiff , joking with supporters, and giving an inside view into his No. 10 North office.

The Greens also claim Burnham’s message of hope has been taken from their playbook, with Polanski quipping that “imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.”

But he warned: “People aren’t just going to get hopeful. They’re going to get hopeful when their bills come down, when their wages go up, when the cost of living reduces.”

More than 150,000 people have joined the Green Party since Polanski took over last year. | Henry Nicholls/AFP via Getty Images

Green strategists are conscious they can’t just have Polanski out on the airwaves, and they are working on building up a roster of people who can do a broadcast round.

The senior Green party local politician quoted above said too many MPs “don’t like doing the comms or don’t care about it.”

“We need a revamped comms strategy from our elected representatives,” that politician added. “It is really important that in our selection processes that we get people over the line that will do that work communicating and cutting through.”

Green party activist and political economist Ashok Kumar, who frequently appears on the right-wing GB News channel, said the Greens need to be better at engaging Reform voters.

“People are pissed, people are furious. They have no money, and we can’t just be tinkering on the side of Labour. We have to go hard,” he said.

More members

The Greens also think they have the edge on members. More than 150,000 people have joined since Polanski took over last year, while Labour has lost more than 200,000 members since the end of 2019.

Enthusiastic campaigners made all the difference in Gorton and Denton, according to Frank Adlington-Stringer, a staffer who worked in new MP Hannah Spencer’s office.

“You need to have members who actually believe in the cause enough to come out time and time again,” Adlington-Stringer added. “They are the ones that make sure you get across the line.”

McCarthy said her Labour party should be “taking seriously” the threat from the Greens. She warned: “The Greens are good at their pavement politics.”

The Greens hope they can stop their new recruits returning to Labour under Burnham.

“What happens when they replace Burnham?” said Adlington-Stringer. “The Labour party just swings between Left and Right when it’s convenient. I hope members that have joined the Greens recently from Labour understand that we are a different kind of political party.”

Track record

With the Greens now controlling more than 20 councils in England and Wales — putting them in charge of vital local services like adult social care, housing, and education — they will have a track record to defend by the next general election, due in 2029.

“Hopefully we will have some wins under our belt,” said Eva Tabbasam, who is deputy leader of Waltham Forest council, where the Green Party shot from zero councilors to 31 in May.

“Residents know we are Greens with no experience. They took a chance on us and that was on a mandate of hope and a plan,” she added.“We have to make hard choices — the budget was in a bad place — but we said that we will be honest about those decisions.”

But securing more elected posts has meant increased scrutiny for the Greens.

At least five candidates were dropped over anti-semitic social media posts before local elections in May, and eight costly by-elections were triggered after the May result because councilors stood down or realized they were not eligible to actually be in post.

Polanski said that the party had now hired an external consultant to review its vetting process.

‘We win either way’

For now, Green campaigners and politicians are putting a brave face on the Burnham coronation, arguing they win whether he is successful or not.

“We’d love re-nationalized water, and we’d love no new oil, shut down all the licenses,” Kumar said. “Amazing, we love that. But if you don’t, then we bolster our membership.”

Polanski said Burnham should be trying to out-Green the Greens, and if he does, he will retire.

“I’m not in politics for politics’ sake. I’m in politics because I want to see the changes,” he said.