Adata chief: DRAM shortages to last a decade, no AI bubble before 2030

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Adata chief predicts memory shortages could persist throughout the next decade

Chen says AI demand still exceeds most industry expectations worldwide

DDR5 prices climbed another 7% during July despite earlier market optimism

Chen Li-bai, chairman of memory chip manufacturer ADATA, has dismissed growing market speculation about an imminent collapse in AI-related investment.

Speaking after TSMC's stock price plummeted following its recent earnings call, Chen argued that discussions about an AI bubble remain premature at this stage.

He stated bluntly that any real conversation about a potential bubble should wait until after 2030.

Global demand still outpacing market expectations

Global demand for AI computing power, memory chips, and electricity continues to exceed what most market analysts had projected.

Meta's recent decision to lease out surplus computing resources sparked speculation that cloud providers had overbuilt capacity faster than demand justified.

That interpretation, according to Chen, does not necessarily mean overall AI demand has fallen below earlier projections.

Future AI applications, he believes, will expand across multiple business models simultaneously, spanning B2B, B2G, B2C, and B2B2C categories.

Chen criticized analysts who judge the broader AI boom using only short-term capital expenditure or single-company utilization figures.

Such a narrow approach, he warned, amounts to a "view of the sky through a pipe" that underestimates long-term demand.

Even as Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron pursue expanded production capacity, Chen predicted continued scarcity across the memory sector.

Electricity, particularly green electricity, and memory will remain the two scarcest global resources over the coming decade, in his view.

Manufacturers are now expected to pursue rational, prudent expansion rather than repeat past cycles of disorderly, large-scale capacity increases.

DDR5 prices already reflect the tightening squeeze

Real-world pricing data already supports Chen's underlying argument about persistent structural shortage rather than temporary market noise.

DDR5 memory kits in Germany rose 7% in July 2026 alone, reaching new all-time price highs according to 3D Center.

That increase pushed average DDR5 costs to 448% above prices recorded in July 2025, representing more than a fourfold jump within a single year.

Much of that surge occurred between October 2025 and January 2026, despite brief stagnation between February and June.

Beyond AI data centers, Chen expects robots, autonomous vehicles, unmanned factories, unmanned stores, smart homes, low-orbit satellites, and related ground infrastructure to require additional memory capacity.

He argued these combined demands cannot be satisfied by the three dominant memory manufacturers, or even major Chinese producers, within a single decade.

As AI applications extend from centralized data centers into physical devices and infrastructure, memory scarcity may become a structural trend rather than a passing cyclical phase.

For consumers and PC manufacturers already contending with elevated component costs, Chen's outlook offers little indication that relief is arriving anytime soon.

Via Ctee (originally in Chinese)