Brits Skeptical of Farage's Anti-Establishment Claims, Poll by Public First Finds

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LONDON — Brits are skeptical of Nigel Farage’s claim that the political establishment is out to get him and reckon his by-election gambit will backfire, according to new polling conducted for POLITICO.

A majority said the Reform UK leader’s decision to resign his Clacton seat to give locals a referendum over mounting questions about his finances is a pointless waste of time and money, the new survey by Public First shows.

Respondents across the U.K. also rated the satirical candidate known as Count Binface — Farage’s main likely opponent in the Aug. 13 by-election — as more trustworthy and likeable than the man who hopes to be prime minister.

Farage has faced recent scrutiny over big-money donations he’s received, including investigation by the parliamentary standards commissioner. He responded last week with a high-stakes strategy: He quit as an MP to trigger what he billed as a “people versus the establishment” by-election, part of a broader effort by the Brexiteer to claim the Establishment is out to thwart him as his party continues to top public opinion polls.

But the Public First polling shows that 44 percent of U.K. voters disagree that Farage is a victim of the political establishment, compared to 28 percent who believe he is.

The only group of voters which, on balance, back that claim are those who already intend to vote Reform (66 percent to 10 percent). Voters currently siding with Reform’s Conservative rivals on the right sided against the anti-establishment claim (30 percent agree with Farage to 41 percent disagreeing), suggesting Farage may have little ground to gain on this strategy.

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Farage is typically seen as a master of the political arts. His Reform UK insurgency has upended Britain’s two-party system — on top of his 2016 victory in his long-waged Brexit crusade.

But respondents firmly sided with the view that his by-election bid is a “silly political move.” Only 29 percent sided with it being a “smart” strategy, compared to 48 percent who believe the opposite.

Reform declined to comment.

Few in Westminster believe that Farage will lose on Aug. 13. Clacton is as close to diehard Farage territory as it gets (he won 46 percent of the vote at the last general election). But how the ploy affects his standing with the nation at large is another matter.

In the poll, 45 percent said the by-election bid will damage Farage’s image, compared to 27 percent who thought it would aid his reputation.

By a margin of 29 points, a majority of respondents sided with the by-election being a pointless waste of time and money (56 percent disapprove of the election bid, compared to 27 percent who believe it’s a worthwhile use of the democratic process).

A majority sided with the belief the election is a bid by Farage to dodge scrutiny (51 percent to 31 percent) — but it would seem the allegations are not going unnoticed.

Some 48 percent believe there are more reasons to doubt Farage’s integrity than most other politicians, compared to 25 percent who disagreed. But that’s not where the trust issues end for Farage.

In triggering the by-election, Farage had hoped to force a showdown with his political rivals and come out saying Clacton backs him despite whatever the outcome of the investigations into Reform donations. Instead, all major political parties called Farage’s bluff and decided not to run against him.

Farage is expected to contend with a series of cranks and comedy characters filling the blanks on the candidate sheet — in line with Britain’s rich tradition of fielding satirical candidates .

The most prominent opponent looks set to be a character known as Count Binface — a comedian who hides head-to-toe under an outfit and runs in high-profile contests on a stream of joke policies.

Despite that, Binface is seen by poll respondents as more trustworthy, with 33 percent putting their faith in him over 22 percent believing Farage is more honest. They believe Binface is more likable too (35 percent in his favor to 28 percent for Farage).

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However, voters said they think Farage better understands the problems facing Clacton compared to Binface. By a margin of seven points, respondents backed Farage on that metric over the character who bills himself as an “independent space warrior.”

The Public First survey of 2,024 U.K. adults was conducted online between July 10 and 13.