Kasparov Warns Putin Will Strike the Baltic States After September Elections

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Vladimir Putin has no intention of striking a peace deal with Ukraine and is more likely to instead escalate his war after Moscow’s parliamentary election in September, according to Russian opposition activist Garry Kasparov.

The dissident’s warning comes as Ukraine has stepped up attacks on Russian military logistics and energy infrastructure, a push that Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said has made Russia “weaker” — and Kyiv hopes could give it the upper hand at the negotiating table.

Yet Kasparov argues that mounting pressure makes Putin more likely to escalate than compromise, and that any settlement short of a Russian defeat would merely give Moscow time to regroup.

“Putin always escalated when he felt he was in trouble … the most natural escalation is the provocation,” said Kasparov, a former world chess champion who is now one of the Kremlin’s most prominent exiled critics.

Kasparov said he expects such a move could involve an incursion into a country on NATO’s eastern flank, such as Latvia or Estonia, intended to test whether other members of the alliance — and particularly the United States — would respond.

He pointed to recently proposed legal changes by the Russian government making it easier to mobilize troops by eliminating the medical examination previously required to draft soldiers as one indication that Moscow is preparing for further conflict.

“There’s not a single sign in Russian propaganda machine, in Russian government actions, in Putin’s speeches,” that the Kremlin is preparing for peace, he said, adding that all the signs point in one direction only: “War, war, war, war.”

Kasparov dismissed the argument that Russia lacks the resources to open another front. Moscow would not need to launch a full-scale invasion to undermine NATO’s credibility, he said, but could instead seize a small border town — potentially one with a Russian-speaking population — and wait to see how the alliance reacted.

If the U.S. then failed to help defend the country under attack, Kasparov said, Putin would have achieved his objective: “NATO is no longer there.”

His remarks come days after NATO chief Mark Rutte acknowledged “nobody” knows how to make Putin come to the negotiating table, as Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine grinds into its fifth year.

Europe’s role

Kasparov, considered one of the greatest chess players in history after becoming undisputed world champion at 22, is one of 10 Russian democratic opposition figures taking part in the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe’s Platform for Dialogue with Russian Democratic Forces.

The initiative is intended to give exiled Russian democrats a voice in European institutions. Kasparov said one of its immediate aims is helping Russians who have fled the country secure legal status and valid documents once their Russian papers expire.

European governments should also promote a defection program for skilled Russians willing to break with the Kremlin, he argued.

“What is Putin’s weakest point? Brains. Computer experts, engineers, financiers … They don’t need social security support, they just need documents. So how about offering them a chance to change sides?” he said.

More broadly, he said Europe should abandon the idea that the war can be ended through compromise and commit fully to a Ukrainian victory.

“Our best hope is to separate Putin from the elites,” he said, arguing that Ukrainian strikes inside Russia are already putting pressure on the country’s power brokers. “Ukrainians are doing a very good job because every time they hit something, someone loses money.”

Kasparov said the EU should intensify sanctions and ban tourist visas for Russian citizens as part of that effort.

“We have to make sure Putin loses,” he said, “because the moment Putin loses the war, he goes down.”