FlashFeed

Full text

Keep our news free from ads and paywalls by making a donation to support our work!

Notes from Poland is run by a small editorial team and is published by an independent, non-profit foundation that is funded through donations from our readers. We cannot do what we do without your support.

Poland has commemorated the anniversary of the Volhynia massacres , in which Ukrainian nationalists slaughtered around 100,000 Poles during World War Two.

This year’s events took on particular significance as they came amid a diplomatic dispute with Ukraine over President Volodymyr Zelensky’s decision to name a military unit after the “heroes of the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA)”, parts of which were responsible for leading the massacres.

In a speech to mark the anniversary, Poland’s president, Karol Nawrocki, condemned the “evil ideology” of Ukrainian nationalism but emphasised he is “not condemning the entire Ukrainian nation”. Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced plans for a Wall of Remembrance in Warsaw that will include the names of victims.

Meanwhile, the main opposition party, the national-conservative Law and Justice (PiS), announced that it is submitting a proposed resolution to parliament declaring that Poland will oppose Ukraine’s accession to the European Union as long as Kyiv continues to “glorify criminals”.

Prezydent RP @NawrockiKn w #Radruż : pic.twitter.com/ZikMNd5BMD

— Kancelaria Prezydenta RP (@prezydentpl) July 11, 2026

Nawrocki has been at the heart of the recent dispute. In response to Zelensky’s decision to name a unit after the UPA, he decided to strip the Ukrainian president of Poland’s highest honour , the Order of the White Eagle.

Today, he visited the small village of Radruż in southeast Poland, less than a kilometre from the Ukrainian border. During the Volhynia massacres, Radruż was one of many villages where the UPA and the Organisation of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN), another nationalist group, massacred Polish civilians.

“We refuse to allow the 120,000 Poles – civilians, women and children – brutally murdered by Ukrainian nationalists to be forgotten,” declared Nawrocki.

Click here to help us continue providing news free from paywalls and ads

Poland commemorates the massacres on 11 July because that was the date in 1943, known as “Bloody Sunday” in Poland, that saw the apogee of the killings, with the OUN and UPA massacring Poles in dozens of locations.

In 2016, a parliamentary resolution declared 11 July a day of remembrance. Last year, the date was turned into an official state holiday through a law passed by parliament and signed into law by then-President Andrzej Duda.

Ukraine protested against the bill , which referred to the massacres as “a crime of genocide against the Polish population”. Kyiv said that Poland’s move to commemorate “the so-called ‘genocide’…flies in the face of the spirit of good neighbourly relations” and “does not contribute to mutual understanding”.

Ukraine has criticised plans by Poland to create a "day of remembrance for Polish victims of the genocide" carried out by Ukrainian nationalists during WWII.

Kyiv says the idea “flies in the face of the spirit of good neighbourly relations” https://t.co/zkdebpw1G4

— Notes from Poland 🇵🇱 (@notesfrompoland) June 5, 2025

Speaking in Radruż today, Nawrocki acknowledged that prewar Poland, on whose territory the Volhynia massacres later took place while under Nazi-German occupation, “was not a paradise” for the millions of ethnic Ukrainians who lived there.

But, he added, this does not justify the events that later took place, which were fuelled by the “evil ideology” of Ukrainian nationalist leader Stepan Bandera , whose followers were responsible for the massacres.

In his remarks, Nawrocki also paid tribute to the “righteous Ukrainians” who tried to help Poles during the massacres, and were as a result often themselves murdered by the nationalists.

“Today, we are not condemning the entire Ukrainian nation; we are condemning the Bandera ideology,” said the Polish president. “Today, we need truth and memory for a better future in the 21st century, without genocidal perpetrators and without genocidal symbols.”

Polish and Ukrainian media have widely quoted Poland's deputy PM as saying: “With Bandera, Ukraine will not enter the EU.”

However, he did not actually speak those words.

We explain what @KosiniakKamysz actually said and how it came to be misinterpreted https://t.co/S3bozRIJTA

— Notes from Poland 🇵🇱 (@notesfrompoland) July 1, 2026

While Nawrocki is aligned with the right-wing Polish opposition, and regularly clashes with the government, earlier on Saturday Tusk published a recorded speech that contained a similar message.

“Truth is our duty to the victims, but also the way to overcome the painful past and achieve a better future,” said the prime minister. “And truth means identifying and naming the guilty, and unequivocal condemnation of this crime.”

Tusk added that the victims also “cannot remain nameless and without a dignified burial”. His government and Nawrocki have pushed for Ukraine to allow searches for and exhumations of massacre victims on its territory. Last year, Kyiv permitted them to resume after a longstanding moratorium.

In his speech today, Tusk announced that a Wall of Remembrance would now be created in Warsaw featuring “an eternal flame and the names of each victim found and identified”.

Pamięć nie może być sługą nienawiści. pic.twitter.com/x2fdcrZV63

— Donald Tusk (@donaldtusk) July 11, 2026

The Polish prime minister also alluded to the fact that Poland expects Ukraine to acknowledge and resolve issues relating to the Volhynia massacres before it is allowed to join the EU .

“A Europe of peace and mutual respect, a Europe reconciled after World War Two, was made possible by truth and calling things by their proper names,” said Tusk. “Anyone who wishes to join this community must be ready for this truth.”

Separately on Saturday, the opposition PiS party, which is aligned with Nawrocki, announced that it was submitting a proposed resolution to parliament that would declare Poland’s opposition to Ukraine’s EU accession while Kyiv continues to “glorify criminals”.

“The EU cannot be based on an ideology that contradicts Christian, European values,” declared PiS deputy leader Przemysław Czarnek, quoted by Polsat News. “It cannot have among its members a country that openly invokes the worst possible legacy.”

📢 Składamy projekt sejmowej uchwały w sprawie sprzeciwu wobec członkostwa Ukrainy w strukturach Unii Europejskiej.  Ukraina z banderyzmem, z gloryfikowaniem ludobójców, którzy dokonali niebywale brutalnej zbrodni na narodzie polskim, nie wejdzie do UE – Wiceprezes PiS, kandydat… pic.twitter.com/lcfpqWSeMX

— Prawo i Sprawiedliwość (@pisorgpl) July 11, 2026

Notes from Poland is run by a small editorial team and published by an independent, non-profit foundation that is funded through donations from our readers. We cannot do what we do without your support.

Main image credit: Przeymysław Keler/KPRP

Full text

The last couple of months have illustrated that franchise fatigue cannot be dismissed as a one-off occurrence. Star Wars fans made it clear that they weren't interested in going to theaters to see the latest adventure featuring characters they're used to watching at home. The Mandalorian and Grogu , a spin-off to the hit Disney+ series The Mandalorian , now holds the unenviable distinction of being the lowest-grossing Star Wars movie of the Disney era. More recently, the DC Universe experienced its first major blow with its second installment, Supergirl , emerging dead on arrival at the box office. It's now poised to finish its run as one of the worst-performing movies of its size. This streak seems to be continuing this week, with another Disney underperformer.

Full text

A Trump administration program aimed at making American AI the world’s default technology is off to a rocky start.

The Commerce Department received 78 applications in the first round of its American AI Exports Program, created last year as a way for the government to promote U.S. semiconductors, AI models and software to foreign buyers. That number is far fewer than the hundreds agency officials had expected, according to three former department officials close to the program, who were granted anonymity to speak candidly about current operations.

Many of the country’s biggest AI companies remain unconvinced the government’s financing, advocacy and licensing incentives will meaningfully boost foreign sales, more than half a dozen technology executives, industry group leaders and analysts told POLITICO. They are also unnerved by the administration’s abrupt, since-reversed order forcing leading AI company Anthropic to cut off foreign access to its latest models — a move they warn may undercut the very pitch the program is making abroad.

The relatively weak turnout marks an early setback for a program President Donald Trump has cast as central to the technology race with China, where AI startup DeepSeek, tech giant Alibaba and other Chinese firms are churning out low-cost, open-source models that developing countries are increasingly adopting. And it’s a sign of how the administration is struggling to balance its desire to dominate the AI sector globally while pursuing ad-hoc policies aimed at keeping it out of the hands of rivals and criminals.

“It’s a problem that Commerce spent months telling the White House that the industry wanted this program and would show up in force,” said one former Trump Commerce Department official briefed on progress by current staff members, who, like others, was granted anonymity to speak candidly about the program. “It’s still early. But it’s not where they hoped it’d be at this point.”

Trump kicked off the initiative last July with an executive order , as part of a vision Commerce Undersecretary William Kimmitt described as working to “position America’s AI innovators and workers to win globally.” The department spent months gathering industry feedback before formally launching the program in October. Companies had until June 30 to team up and pitch complete AI packages the government could market abroad.

In a Monday press release , the Commerce Department’s International Trade Administration, which promotes exports by U.S. companies abroad, said it received applications from a broad “cross-section of the AI industry,” including major hyperscalers and cloud providers, as well as semiconductor and hardware manufacturers.

In a statement to POLITICO, Commerce declined to list specific companies involved with the initiative but rejected claims that submissions fell short of what the department had hoped, saying ”the volume of applications exceeded our expectations, and as industry innovates, we may consider another application period at a later date.”

An official for the agency, who was granted anonymity to provide details of the proposals, told POLITICO they targeted sectors including agriculture, education, autonomous logistics, public safety and critical minerals supply chains. They said that the agency received applications from small companies, too, noting in an emailed statement that “the criteria for Program success is straightforward: American AI exports to foreign partners.”

The cloud computing company Amazon Web Services submitted an application, the company confirmed to POLITICO.

The chip giant Nvidia did not confirm whether its currently involved in any projects tied to the initiative, but a spokesperson said in a statement that it “looks forward to participating in this program.”

Other leading American AI and tech companies that were expected to help anchor the program, such as OpenAI and Advanced Micro Devices, haven’t said whether they’re taking part, however. Neither company responded to a request for comment.

Corporate skepticism stems in part from the way the Commerce Department structured the program, said the technology executives. Rather than seeking individual products or technologies, the department asked applicants to assemble complete AI export packages spanning advanced chips, cloud infrastructure, AI models, cybersecurity and sector-specific applications — capabilities that are typically spread across multiple companies and often concentrated among the industry’s largest players. Those are also the firms that already have established overseas customers, financing channels and government relationships, industry officials said.

“The larger technology companies, the hyperscalers, and so on, they have strong global operations, so they may not be in every market, but they are adept at learning how to work in different jurisdictions and negotiate with the local governments,” said Paul Lekas, head of global public policy and government affairs at the Software & Information Industry Association, a trade group whose members include large tech companies like Google.

If major companies do participate, part of the program’s value may come from the signal of government backing, added Mike Walsh, a partner at DLA Piper focused on national security and global trade. “The messaging device is important, the assistance of the United States government, the clearance of some red tape that even the largest companies still have to deal with, I think is helpful.”

Others say the affiliation with the Trump administration has major downsides, which in many cases could outweigh the benefits of the program.

“It’s not worth the headache and complexity, and it’s not clear there’s much upside to tying those projects to the Trump administration right now,” said a senior official at a Washington-based industry group representing major companies in the tech sector, who was granted anonymity to speak about why members opted not to participate.

Much of that hesitation traces back to the administration’s order on Anthropic, an abrupt move that some in the industry viewed as a sign of how quickly Washington’s priorities can shift — and how risky it could be to tie overseas business to them.

While the administration ultimately reversed its restrictions, the episode became another data point for governments already questioning whether critical AI infrastructure built around American technology could become subject to abrupt policy changes. The security vulnerabilities cited to justify the temporary restrictions also drew skepticism from industry officials, who argued that many less capable models — including some from OpenAI — could identify the same vulnerabilities.

The doubts didn’t begin with the Anthropic order, however. The initiative has struggled with skepticism since its earliest days.

The executive order’s original late-October deadline came and went without a request for proposals, and Commerce did not open the application window until April 1. In the interim, a coalition of more than a dozen industry organizations asked the department for more time to respond to its initial request for public input, citing the “complexity and breadth” of the topics it covered and saying additional time was needed to develop feedback to inform the program’s “design and implementation.” The coalition included the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which represents millions of companies, and the Washington-based tech and trade association the Information Technology Industry Council.

Months after applications opened, some industry groups say they are still waiting for greater clarity on how the program will operate. ITI, which represents companies including Nvidia, welcomed the initiative as an opportunity to strengthen U.S. technology leadership, but “clear implementation guidance will be essential to ensuring it achieves these goals,” said Kristin Najdi, the group’s senior director of trade policy.

A second phase of the program, in which the government will bring companies specific deals to bid on, has yet to launch.

“It’s pretty clear early on that the private sector appetite for participating in a USG branded AI initiative is not encouraging,” said Emily Benson, head of strategy at the Minerva Technology Futures intelligence firm. “My hot take from Day 1 was this is not going to go anywhere.”

Daniel Castro, president of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, a Washington-based technology policy think tank that lists Apple and Samsung among its supporters, said the biggest risk is that foreign buyers start hedging. “People want American technology right now globally — they think it’s the best,” he said. “But if they think that there are limits to their potential future access to it, they’re going to be looking at alternatives, and that can seriously hold them back.”

Whether foreign buyers actually show up is an open question, added Aaron Cooper, senior vice president of global policy at the Business Software Alliance, which represents major technology companies like Amazon Web Services and Cloudflare. “Right now, what I think the administration is trying to do is assemble the supply side.”

Full text

On Episode 218 of This Week In Space , Rod Pyle and Tariq Malik discuss NASA's new moonbase plans with planetary scientist Dr. Pascal Lee.

Starting with Artemis V (so far), the US plans to begin preparations for a permanent base situated in the south polar regions of the moon. Details are somewhat fluid, but one thing stands out: the poles are likely to be the most challenging places to set up shop in an already hostile environment. Pascal joins us to discuss moonbase siting options and why the poles may not be the best choice at first.

Download or subscribe to this show at: https://twit.tv/shows/this-week-in-space .

Get episodes ad-free with Club TWiT at https://twit.tv/clubtwit

Space news of the week

Making history! China lands rocket during an orbital launch for 1st time ever

NASA's New Horizons probe just woke up from hibernation 6 billion miles away beyond Pluto. What's it doing out there?

Wally Funk, trailblazing pilot and astronaut, passes away at 87

Moon Base - NASA

Project Horizon - Wikipedia

The Artemis Accords

NASA, Department of Energy to Develop Lunar Surface Reactor by 2030

Model Falcon 9!

TOP TELESCOPE PICK:

(Image credit: Celestron) Looking for a telescope to see planets and comets? We recommend the Celestron Astro Fi 102 as the top pick in our best beginner's telescope guide .

Finally, did you know you can launch your own SpaceX rocket? Model rocket maker Estes' stunning scale model of a Falcon 9 rocket that you can pick up now. The launchable model is a detailed recreation of the Falcon 9 and retails for $149.99. You can save 10% by using the code IN-COLLECTSPACE at checkout , courtesy of our partners collectSPACE.com.

About This Week In Space

This Week in Space covers the new space age. Every Friday we take a deep dive into a fascinating topic. What's happening with the new race to the moon and other planets? When will SpaceX really send people to Mars?

Join Rod Pyle and Tariq Malik from Space.com as they tackle those questions and more each week on Friday afternoons. You can subscribe today on your favorite podcatcher.

Full text

The Chase Sapphire Preferred® Card (see rates and fees ) is one of the best travel rewards cards for beginners and experienced travelers alike. If you're thinking about applying, you're probably wondering whether your credit score is high enough.

While Chase doesn't publish a minimum credit score requirement, applicants with a FICO score of around 700 or higher generally have the strongest approval odds. However, your credit score is only one piece of the puzzle. Chase also considers your credit history, your income, your existing relationship with the bank and your application history.

Limited-time offer on the Chase Sapphire Preferred : Earn 100,000 bonus points after spending $5,000 on purchases in the first three months from account opening.

Here's what you should know before applying.

What credit score do you need for the Chase Sapphire Preferred?

The Sapphire Preferred is widely considered one of the best travel rewards cards for beginners, making it a popular first travel card for many applicants.

Although Chase doesn't publish a minimum credit score requirement, we generally recommend having a FICO score of at least 700 before applying. That's in the middle of the "good" credit score range (670 to 739) and should give you solid approval odds.

MOMO PRODUCTIONS/GETTY IMAGES Applicants with good-to-excellent credit typically have the best chance of approval, though no credit score guarantees you'll be approved.

Using the FICO scoring model, credit scores fall into the following ranges:

Exceptional : 800 to 850

Very good : 740 to 799

Good : 670 to 739

Fair : 580 to 669

Poor : 579 and below

Keep in mind that it's possible to be approved with a score below 700 — or denied with a much higher one. Chase evaluates your overall credit profile, not just your credit score.

Related: How to check your credit score for free

What factors affect your approval odds?

Your credit score is only one part of your application. Chase also considers several other factors when deciding whether to approve you.

Credit history

Although the Sapphire Preferred is an excellent starter travel card, applicants with very limited credit history may have a harder time qualifying. If you're brand-new to credit or have only one credit card , consider building your credit history with a starter card before applying.

Income

Chase doesn't disclose a minimum income requirement, but your income helps determine your ability to repay borrowed money. Higher income can strengthen your application, particularly when paired with responsible credit management .

Credit utilization

Credit utilization — the percentage of your available credit you're using — is another important factor.

AZMANJAKA/GETTY IMAGES While Chase doesn't publish a target utilization ratio , keeping your balances low (generally below 20%) demonstrates responsible credit use and can improve your approval odds.

Existing relationship with Chase

Having an existing banking relationship with Chase may also help. While it's not a formal application requirement, longtime Chase customers — especially those with checking, savings or investment accounts — may have stronger approval odds than new customers.

Related: 8 ways to maximize your chances of being approved for a credit card

Should you apply for the Sapphire Preferred before the Sapphire Reserve?

If you're considering the Chase Sapphire Reserve® (see rates and fees ), it often makes sense to start with the Sapphire Preferred . Approval is generally easier, and you can always upgrade to the Sapphire Reserve later if you decide its premium benefits better fit your travel style.

Related: Chase Sapphire Preferred vs. Sapphire Reserve: Which is better for you?

How to check your credit score

Under no circumstances should you pay to check your credit score . Many credit cards come with a free FICO score calculator. And even if yours doesn't, there are many other ways to check your credit score for free.

Many free sites can help you keep better track of your score and its factors. You can even use these services to dispute any information on your score that isn't accurate or appears to be fraudulent. If you want even more credit services, you may also consider paying for a credit-monitoring service like myFICO.

Related: Credit cards 101: The beginners guide

Factors that affect your credit score

Before you start applying for any credit cards, it's essential to understand the factors that make up your credit score. After all, the mere act of applying for a new line of credit will change your score .

FICO While the exact formula for calculating your credit score isn't public, FICO is transparent about the factors they assess and the weightings they use:

Payment history : 35% of your FICO score is based on your payment history. So, if you get behind in making loan payments, this part of your credit score will suffer. Also, the more extended and more recent the delinquency, the more significant the negative effect.

Amounts owed (credit utilization): 30% of your FICO score consists of the relative size of your current debt . In particular, your debt-to-credit ratio is the total of your debts divided by the total available credit across all your accounts. Many people claim that having a debt-to-credit ratio below 20% is best, but it's not a magic number.

Length of credit history : 15% of your score represents the average length of all accounts on your credit history. The average length of your accounts can be a significant factor if you have a limited credit history. It can also be a factor for people who open and close accounts quickly.

New credit : Your most recent accounts determine 10% of your credit score. So, this part of your credit score will suffer if you've recently opened too many accounts. After all, obtaining a lot of new credit is one sign of financial distress.

Credit mix : 10% of your score is related to how many different credit accounts you have, such as mortgages, car loans, credit loans and store credit cards . While having a mix of loan types is better than having just one type, we don't recommend taking out unnecessary loans solely to boost your credit score .

With regard to the Sapphire Preferred , one crucial factor to consider is the average age of your accounts. While a lengthier credit history will boost your score, many issuers focus on the one-year cutoff. That means that having an average age of accounts of more than a year can go a long way toward increasing your odds of approval. However, you might have trouble getting approved with 11 months of credit history — even if your numerical credit score is excellent .

If you have any delinquencies or bankruptcies on your credit report, Chase might hesitate to approve you for a new line of credit. It's important to remember that your credit profile is more than just a number. Your credit profile is a collection of information given to the issuer to analyze your creditworthiness.

As a result, there is no hard-and-fast rule about a specific credit score that will automatically get you approved (or denied) for the Sapphire Preferred.

Related: 7 things to understand about credit before applying for a new card

Chase Sapphire Preferred application requirements

After you've checked your credit score, there is another Chase-related factor to consider before you apply for the Sapphire Preferred .

5/24 rule

As with most Chase cards , the Sapphire Preferred is subject to Chase's 5/24 rule , which states that Chase will automatically reject your application if you've opened five or more personal credit cards (with any issuer) in the last 24 months.

ZEYNEPKAYA/GETTY IMAGES The 5/24 rule is hard-coded into Chase's system, so agents generally can't manually override it. As such, if you're over 5/24 , your only option for getting the Sapphire Preferred is to wait until you're under 5/24 again.

Related: Want to open a new Chase card? Here's how to calculate your 5/24 standing

What to do if your application is rejected

If Chase rejects your credit card application, don't give up. If you receive a rejection letter, you should first examine the reasons for your rejection. By law, card issuers must send you a written or electronic communication explaining what factors prevented you from being approved.

Once you've figured out why Chase rejected you, you can call the reconsideration line.

Tell the person on the phone that you recently applied for a Chase credit card, were surprised to see that Chase rejected your application and would like to speak to someone about getting that decision reconsidered.

From there, it's up to you to build a case and convince the agent why Chase should approve you for the card.

10'000 HOURS/GETTY IMAGES For example, if Chase rejected you for having a short credit history, you can point to your stellar record of on-time payments. Or, if Chase rejected you for missed payments, you could explain that those were a long time ago and your recent history has been perfect.

Chase is also known to limit a customer's total credit line across all cards. You may have success overcoming a rejection by offering to shift unused credit from an existing card to a new one.

There's no guarantee that your call will work, but it's worth spending 15 minutes on the phone if it might help you get the card you want.

Related: Your guide to calling a credit card reconsideration line

Bottom line

While Chase doesn't publish a minimum credit score for the Sapphire Preferred , a FICO score of at least 700 generally gives you the best chance of approval.

Just remember that your score is only one factor. Your credit history, your income, your credit utilization ratio and whether you're under Chase's 5/24 rule can all have a significant impact on your application.

If your credit profile is in good shape, the Sapphire Preferred remains one of the best travel rewards cards for beginners and frequent travelers.

Apply here: Chase Sapphire Preferred Card

Editorial disclaimer: Opinions expressed here are the author’s alone, not those of any bank, credit card issuer, airline or hotel chain, and have not been reviewed, approved or otherwise endorsed by any of these entities.

Full text

Tropical forests draw down and store large quantities of CO₂ from the atmosphere. The Amazon rainforest in South America, for example, stores approximately 123 billion tonnes of carbon — more than is stored in any other terrestrial ecosystem in the world. But these forests are facing a critical challenge.

Research from 2023 , which was carried out by me and more than 100 colleagues, found that tropical forests in South America are vulnerable to climate extremes. We determined that during an El Niño event , the warm phase of a natural fluctuation in the Earth's climate system, South American tropical forests may fail to act as a carbon sink.

This finding becomes even more alarming when we consider the increasing frequency and intensity of El Niño events. There have been twice as many "very strong" El Niños in the last 60 years as there were in the 60 years before that. And the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has recently confirmed that such an El Niño is currently underway.

Tropical forests absorb CO₂ through the process of photosynthesis and convert it into biomass. However, the balance between photosynthesis and respiration is delicate and depends on two factors: temperature and water availability.

In hotter and drier conditions, plants close the pores of their leaves to avoid water loss. But closing them effectively cuts off a plant's fuel supply because it is through these pores they absorb CO₂. This starves plants of the carbon needed for photosynthesis and to grow.

During El Niño years, which are characterized by high temperature anomalies , prolonged climate stress leads to reduced forest growth and increased tree mortality. The effects of this are felt for decades as carbon is released back into the atmosphere when the dead trees decompose.

Our findings revealed that during the 2015-2016 El Niño, when temperatures on land were at least a degree higher on average than usual conditions, some of South America's tropical forests effectively stopped absorbing carbon. This raises concerns about the possible impact of the current El Niño on the Amazon and global climate.

A map of the Amazon River drainage basin in the middle of the Amazon rainforest. (Image credit: By Kmusser from Wikimedia Commons with elements from this file , CC-BY-SA-3.0 ) In our research, we measured over half a million trees across six South American countries over a period of more than 30 years, using tape measures to track their growth. These trees belonged to over 4,000 different species. We used this data to calculate precise estimates of the amount of carbon stored as a forest's aboveground biomass.

We found that the vulnerability of these forests to El Niño conditions was closely linked to their baseline climate. While we tend to assume that rainforests are all hot, wet and biodiverse ecosystems, seasonal drought is a reality for many tropical forests. Conditions in regions at the edge of the Amazon rainforest, for example, tend to be particularly hot and dry.

Our findings revealed that drier forests at the edge of the Amazon, where trees regularly endure periods of limited water availability, were especially susceptible to extreme El Niño conditions. On average, a 0.5°C increase in temperature caused these forests to lose 0.5% of their aboveground carbon.

Larger trees suffered the most . While tree mortality rates increased from 1.8% to 3% per year during the El Niño in South American tropical forests as a whole, mortality rates effectively doubled for medium (classified as over 20cm in diameter) and large trees.

The fact that larger trees with less dense wood died at much higher rates compared to small trees and those with high wood density points strongly to hydraulic failure, when intense atmospheric moisture demand snaps the tension in the tree's internal water column rather than slow carbon starvation.

These results suggest that adaption to seasonal drought may not be sufficient to protect tropical forests from extreme events. Climate extremes are possibly already pushing forests at the edges of the Amazon beyond their capacity to adapt, causing catastrophic carbon losses.

A looming threat

Scientists have warned that 2026 may again be the warmest year on record. Heightening the alarm further is the severity of the current El Niño. Never before has an an El Niño begun when oceans are already so warm and air temperatures so high.

On top of this is the fact that, over the past three decades, the edges of the Amazon have experienced some of the highest temperatures and most rapid warming the tropics have ever seen. The structural integrity of a forest is compromised when a major climate anomaly occurs before it has recovered from recent, multi-year stress.

Related stories

El Niño is officially here, and will be among the strongest ever recorded, NOAA announces

'Uncharted territory': Record-high ocean temperatures confirmed for June as El Niño strengthens its grip

NASA satellite captures wave of warm water hundreds of miles long that signals a devastatingly strong El Niño

These compounding factors mean that we risk witnessing tree and carbon losses on scales not yet seen.

Tropical forests are invaluable assets in the fight against climate change. But South American tropical forests, a once-reliable carbon sink, are vulnerable to intensifying heat and drought. There is a risk these essential ecological allies stop acting as a carbon sink as extreme climate conditions become the norm.

Preserving tropical forests is thus essential. Their ability to continue acting as carbon sinks hinges on efforts to protect them and a collective commitment to limit global temperature rise. The Amazon's future depends on this, and so does ours.

This edited article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article .

Rainforest quiz : Can you sort Earth's largest rainforests from biggest to smallest?