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🪖 Military
NATO warns: Kremlin is betting on small provocations, not a major offensive
Intelligence agencies across NATO countries, including Poland's ABW, warn that the Kremlin's main strategy is not a large-scale offensive but a series of small, below-threshold provocations designed to test Alliance cohesion. Russia is under increasing pressure and is probing NATO's resolve without triggering Article 5. Analysts say Putin faces a dilemma: escalation is costly, but inaction signals weakness.
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