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The central bank for central banks is concerned about the eye-watering sums being invested into AI, and it's raising the specter of a global recession should the bubble burst. In its annual report for 2026, the Bank for International Settlements compared the current craze to historical events, including canal and British railway mania in the 1800s, electrification exuberance of the 1920s, and the dotcom boom of the 1990s. The report states: “all shared one common trait: a genuine technological breakthrough that attracted capital in excess of what commercial returns could ultimately justify. “These episodes ended with an eventual reversal in investment, inducing economy-wide recessions. The scale and pace of the current AI investment boom accompanied by expectations of large productivity payoffs bear resemblance to these precedents, highlighting potential downside risks in the near term.” The Register has already reported that Amazon forecasts capital expenditures of $200 billion for 2026, Microsoft is projecting $190 billion, Google some $180 billon and Meta up to $140 billion. Oracle is also betting big on AI. BIS estimates the five largest hyperscalers are set to spend more than a trillion dollars on AI-related capex in 2026 – and given the inflationary conditions regarding memory and that each rival is trying to outdo each other, that seems plausible. “These commitments are outpacing earnings and the free cash flow of these firms, leading some to issue debt to raise additional financing. This investment race may be partly driven by the perception that only a small number of players with superior technology will ultimately dominate the market shares." Intense competition is leading to the risk of the tech giants overcommitting resources to “investment projects with still uncertain returns, leaving all firms vulnerable to disappointments in AI payoffs.” This is because as competitive pressure drives spending ever higher, the net economic surplus for the tech industry declines and “could turn negative in adverse scenarios.” “Disappointment in returns could trigger a sudden pullback in financing and turn the capex boom into a protracted investment bust with potential knock-on effects on the financial conditions,” the annual report continues. The report also cited concerns about a looming "supply side roadblock" around issues like electricity availability, chip shortages and grid connection bottlenecks. AI datacenters are already putting pressure on energy prices and input costs with “potential spillovers to inflation.” “Looking ahead, these temporary shortages may also amplify over-investment, as firms attempt to lock in future capacity through long-dated contracts that further expose them to any disappointments in demand.” Should inflation spike or AI-led investment collapse, the macroeconomic consequences could be amplified by “existing financial vulnerabilities.” Policy rates being tightened to get a hold on inflation may precipitate a “sharp pullback in asset prices after a prolonged period of exuberant risk-taking, triggering disruptive macro-financial feedback loops.” Given AI companies' “rising leverage” and a “growing footprint in credit markets”, a major change in optimistic sentiments towards these businesses could have serious financial knock-on effects. ”Vulnerabilities extend to their supplier ecosystem, including engineering, procurement and construction contractors whose balance sheets are comparatively weak, leaving them exposed to any Capex pullback by hyperscalers.” The “opacity” of AI-sector financing is compounding vulnerabilities as corporations create a web of private arrangements – circular financing – and the terms of datacenter facility leases are often not fully disclosed, BIS adds. The backdrop to all of this is that, while enterprises running pilots report some efficiency gains at a employee level, few report discernible productivity gains from AI projects that went into production environments at scale. The Register has long discussed concerns about the dynamics of the AI industry, as outlined in the many links in this article above. It now seems that suits in the finance industry are waking up to the potential pitfalls too. ®

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LONDON — The U.S. Embassy’s glitzy summer party celebrating the 250th anniversary of American independence will bring together ministers, military brass, industry titans and ambassadors in London on Tuesday night.

But Britain’s likely next prime minister, Andy Burnham, is sitting this one out.

A spokesperson for Burnham — who is widely expected to become the U.K.’s next prime minister on July 20 — told POLITICO that he had turned down an invite due to a “scheduling clash.”

Speaking to reporters last week, U.S. President Donald Trump dismissed Burnham as the former “mayor of a town” and labeled him as “extremely liberal.”

The Grand American Jubilee is set to attract roughly 2,500 guests to Winfield House, U.S. Ambassador Warren Stephens’ official residence in Regent’s Park, where invitees will squeeze past U.S. Marines and into the gardens.

Stephens has issued fewer invites to the party this year than usual, according to two people familiar with the planning, granted anonymity to speak freely. Up to 4,500 guests have attended in previous years.

Invitations have been sent to every major party leader. Previous attendees include former Prime Minister Liz Truss, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage and outgoing U.K. PM Keir Starmer, who attended in 2023 before he entered office.

Guests will be entertained by country music star Tim McGraw — and fireworks so loud that special permission had to be secured after previous year’s explosions unsettled the animals in nearby London Zoo, according to one of the people cited above.

The U.S. Embassy did not respond to a request for comment.

The American bash in Regent’s Park isn’t the only hot diplomatic ticket in London on Tuesday night. The Swiss Embassy’s Soireé Suisse takes place on the same evening at the Victoria & Albert Museum.

The Swiss are pulling out all the stops to try to beat their rivals: a flying buffet, raclette stations, an ice bar, mountains of swiss cheese, and DJ sets inspired by Alpine glaciers. Two U.K-based diplomats said some are plotting a shuttle operation between the two receptions.

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Ford topped JD Power’s mainstream quality study, beating brands like Subaru.

Jim Farley credits a four-year culture shift for the surprise result.

Just three years ago, Ford sat in 15th place among mainstream brands.

Ford chief executive Jim Farley is celebrating the company being named the top mainstream brand in JD Power’s recent Initial Quality Study, and he’s pinning the win on a four-year campaign to fix what was broken.

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The study , which analyzes problems experienced in the first 90 days of ownership of new vehicles, showed that Ford experienced an average of 152 problems per 100 vehicles. Not only was this enough for Ford to beat out the likes of Lexus, Nissan, Buick, Hyundai, and Subaru, but it also represented a massive improvement over 2023, when Ford ranked 15th among mainstream brands.

Read: Ford Went From Recall King To JD Power’s Top Mainstream Brand For Initial Quality

“Oh boy, this is a big day for Ford ,” Farley declared after the results were announced. “We’ve worked really hard for four years to be an overnight success story. It’s been an incredible journey over the last several years. We have completely transformed all of our plants and our quality operating system.”

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Admittedly, the study provides only a snapshot of new vehicle ownership and does not analyze problems owners experience after the first 90 days. In addition, Ford has issued 51 recalls alone this year, more than double any of its competitors. However, Farley told Yahoo! Finance the automaker’s warranty costs fell last year and will continue to decline this year. He also said, “recall costs are going down,” and “this will be a big financial story for the company too.”

Ford Now Obsessed With Quality

Farley said Ford had to change its culture to match the quality of its competitors, particularly those from Japan and Germany. Now, Ford’s workers are “completely obsessed with all the data,” Farley describes, stating that “we look at every defect and understand why it happened.”

Also: Ford Asked AI To Build Better Cars, Then Rehired Humans To Fix What AI Broke

Ford hasn’t been solely focused on improving the quality of its vehicles. During the same interview, Farley spoke about the company’s plans for more affordable models, stating it plans to launch five or six of them, starting with its new electric pickup priced at less than $30,000. He also revealed that Ford can now match BYD on battery cost thanks to the work of its skunkworks team in California.

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